Foreign Relations Between the Taliban and the Central Asian States Bordering Afghanistan

Map of Central Asia
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When the Taliban took over the Afghan government in August 2021 it formed the so-called Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. The pictures of Afghans climbing the fences to Kabul’s International Airport in the hope to get evacuated by foreign military jets are still present in people’s heads. The Taliban seemed to be isolated after its forceful takeover of power, but two years onwards most Central Asian countries have established official ties with the Taliban government despite initial reluctance.

Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan have developed formal relations with the Taliban-led government (Radio Free Europe). While Kazakhstan was more hesitant and only formalised their relations this summer, Uzbekistan has opened a Taliban-run consulate in Termez close to the Uzbek-Afghan border and simultaneously continues to operate the embassy in Tashkent with the staff from before the Taliban takeover (Voice of America). Kyrgyzstan is currently planning to formalise relations despite being wary of Afghanistan as a theocratic state in the region. Tajikistan has been the most critical Central Asian state of the Taliban government and most reluctant to formalise foreign relations, however, there have been unofficial visits by the Taliban to the country (Radio Free Europe). As a bordering state to Afghanistan, Tajikistan has considerable security concerns, fearing especially infiltrations of terroristic movements from Afghanistan into the country. Currently, 10,000 Russian troops are stationed in Tajikistan that have ensured some perceived security on the Tajik side (The Diplomat). 

At the beginning Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, the countries bordering Afghanistan, were concerned about refugee movements after Afghan Air Force pilots had fled with their fighter jets to Uzbekistan but regular refugees were not allowed entry by the bordering countries (Center for Strategic and International Studies). Initial reluctance to build ties and cooperate with the Taliban among Central Asian nations has developed into pragmatic cooperation over shared interests like security in the region while democracy and human rights play only a secondary role. However, the evolving relations between the Central Asian nations and Afghanistan have the potential to be impacted negatively by the building of a canal Northern Afghanistan which diverts water from the Amu Darya River that also provides water for agriculture in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has the ambitions to restart trade and economic ties, especially for infrastructure projects like the Uzbek-proposed Trans-Afghan Railway. It has already opened a new cargo centre in Termez near the Afghan border to promote cross-border trade (Voice of America). Increased commitments by Uzbekistan to improve relations with Taliban-led Afghanistan can also be seen by hosting the Tashkent Conference in July 2022 with representatives of more than 20 countries and international organisations including major world powers like the EU and UN who were coming together to negotiate with the Taliban. This is seen as a step aimed at gradually integrating the country into the international community working on infrastructure cooperation projects in energy and communication. The Taliban itself was seeking to secure more foreign investment and the release of frozen assets signalling that Afghanistan is open for business (The Diplomat).

Tajikistan

Tajikistan is the most hesitant country in Central Asia to establish ties with the Taliban government. However, there is a recent development pointing towards diplomatic ties in the past months. A Taliban delegation visited Dushanbe in the beginning of this year which was neither confirmed nor denied by the Tajik government. It is known that the delegation members were not travelling on diplomatic visas but on business visas instead. Also, the Taliban met with local authorities and visited the former consulate in Khorog, the capital of the autonomous Gorno-Badakhshan Region and border town to the Afghan Badakhshan region, in March which was destroyed by an avalanche the previous month. Tajikistan has not sent a delegation to Kabul in return but has resumed the export of electricity to Afghanistan citing economic cooperation and helping the suffering Afghan population while rejecting political cooperation with the Taliban-led government (Radio Free Europe). 

Turkmenistan 

The Turkmen leadership is seeking for good relations with the Taliban government as it provides humanitarian aid and electricity to Afghanistan and was the first Central Asian country to recognise the takeover of the government by the Taliban (Eurasianet). There has been no mention of the construction of the canal in Northern Afghanistan yet which will have a disastrous impact on the water supply of the Amu Darya River to Turkmenistan (Radio Free Europe).

The Construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal

The Taliban are constructing the Qosh Tepa Canal in the North of the country which is a megaproject aimed at diverting water from the Amu Darya River upstream in Afghanistan for agricultural purposes leaving the downstream nations, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, with a third less water, according to estimates. The diversion of water from the river that marks parts of the Afghan-Uzbek and Uzbek-Turkmen border will have severe consequences for agriculture and fishing in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. How the costly project is financed is not entirely clear with some sources suspecting it could be partially financed by the United Arab Emirates (Radio Free Europe).

This mega project has the potential to disrupt the newly established relations between the Taliban and the two downstream nations. According to Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev the country sees the construction of the canal as a concern, especially in light of the risk of desertification in the area but so far relies on dialogue rather than confrontation (Eurasianet). Uzbekistan currently focuses on humanitarian aid provision, conducting talks on infrastructure, the transit of goods, bilateral foreign relations and even assistance with the construction of the canal. However, it is unclear why exactly the assistance for the canal is provided by Uzbekistan. According to a reporter from Radio Free Europe’s Uzbek service, there either could have been an arrangement made to ensure sufficient water supply for Uzbekistan or the Uzbek government is trying to appease the Taliban government (Radio Free Europe).

The Turkmen leadership has not made any statements despite a potentially disastrous impact on its territory by the construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal in Northern Afghanistan (Radio Free Europe). However, the societal pressures in Turkmenistan will increase as there is already a concern among farmers that the water supply from the Amu Darya will further decline. In the past couple of years, the cotton and wheat quotas set by the Turkmen state have not been reached requiring the import of flour to meet the domestic demand (Radio Free Europe).

The build-up of an anti-Western front 

The newly established foreign relations in Central Asia and Afghanistan can be interpreted as a build-up of an anti-Western front in the region. On the one hand, Russia has considerable influence in the region north of the Afghan border through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and close bilateral ties with the Central Asian governments as well as 10,000 troops stationed in Tajikistan (The Diplomat). On the other hand, Iran is trying to exploit historical, cultural and commercial ties in the region, including in Afghanistan (SpecialEurasia). Also, China has become not only present in the countries of the former Soviet Union but also in Afghanistan with its charm offensive, the closure of multiple high-level contracts, especially in the mining sector, “zero tariff treatment” on Chinese imports of Afghan products (Voice of America) and good diplomatic ties leaving little leverage for Western influence.

Vegas Von Vogelstein

Vegas Von Vogelstein