China and the Credit Crisis
CHINA: a country that conjures up different things to different people. For some, an ancient civilization that dominated East Asia for thousands of years and a huge and growing market which compels attention from businesses around the world. For others, a malevolent, ever-surveillant, Communist-controlled society set on world domination, and to be avoided.
The question which arises for all in Western countries is how to deal with China. This is an issue which is being hotly debated both in Whitehall and in Governments beyond.
Giles Chance presents the starting point for discussion in his book “China and the Credit Crisis” (John Wiley, 2010, Chinese edition CITIC Press 2011). The book and surrounding discussion within this webinar is centred around:
- China’s emergence as a huge source of cheaper supply placed downward pressure on global manufactured goods prices, creating disinflation which led to much lower interest rates. In turn, this stimulated the “search for yield” which focused on real estate, destabilising the financial markets in 2008.
- China’s decision after the 2008 crash to follow its own path, not America.
- China’s impact on the rest of the world will be large and long-lasting.
Giles’ involvement in China began back in 1984 after meeting his future Chinese wife at the World Bank in Washington DC. After getting married in London in 1988, they set up a Chinese advisory business with offices in London, Shanghai and Beijing advising MNE’s on their entry to and development in the China market. In 2003, Giles co-founded a China-focused boutique investment bank called Evolution Securities China with offices in Shanghai, Hong Kong and London, raising capital for private Chinese companies in London and Hong Kong and advising Western portfolio investors on China.
The ideas in Giles’ book are based on twenty years of close personal involvement in Chinese business. Subsequently, Giles spent seven years as a visiting professor at Peking University, and nine years as an adjunct professor at the Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College, USA.
Andrew Milligan will also be joining Giles on the panel, sharing his valuable insight. Andrew was Head of Global Strategy at Aberdeen Standard Investments (Abrdn), responsible for investment market advice and analysis from 2000 to 2020. He was also a member of the Global Investment Group forming the House View.
He has several decades of experience working in the public and private sectors, banking, stockbroking and asset management, for a range of global companies. In addition to supporting the Asia Scotland Institute, Andrew assists a range of local charities and universities as well as public speaking and writing on economic and financial matters.